Macroeconomic forecasting and regional trends - April 2024

Economic uncertainty is often seen as a deterrent to growth, but for many Americans, it’s become the fuel for a fresh start. As inflation wavers and traditional employment structures shift, more individuals are stepping out of corporate roles to pursue business ownership. In this week’s Commercial Pulse Report, we take a closer look at what’s driving this wave of entrepreneurial activity.

Check out the full report to see how these trends could impact your strategy!

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The 2025 U.S. rental market reflects broader economic conditions, shaped by shifting market forces and ongoing uncertainty. Landlords and property managers are navigating a complex landscape where understanding renter behavior, affordability challenges, and macroeconomic pressures is key to maintaining stable occupancy. By staying informed on these trends, they can better attract and retain long-term tenants.

Key Insights:

• Renter Financial Pressure: Renters across all demographics are facing rising debt and affordability issues, impacting their housing stability.
• Rent-to-Income Imbalance: Rent prices continue to rise faster than incomes, increasing the financial burden on tenants nationwide.
• Macroeconomic Impact: Factors like interest rates, unemployment, and housing development are reshaping rental market dynamics.
• Strategic Adaptation Needed: Landlords must adapt to evolving renter preferences and market conditions to ensure long-term success.

The latest Experian Commercial Pulse Report provides a sharp look at how recent economic shifts are impacting small businesses across the U.S., with a special focus on supply chains, specifically the transportation industry, which is experiencing fallout from changing trade policies. Are industry-specific models effective in mitigating risk?

Check out the full report to see how these trends could impact your strategy!

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While the US labor market remains on decent footing, it has become increasingly challenging to land a job. For lenders, current dynamics suggest there could be greater-than-expected stress in higher-income households and in the Prime credit segments of the market if layoffs increase and job opportunities for these workers remain scarce. Insights include:

• Businesses are scaling back on hiring due to economic uncertainty and AI uptake
• Employment in both tech-centric and broader professional and business services has been stagnant
• Higher-educated/white-collar workers feeling the strain of a challenging job market